Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Why averaging up is better than averaging down?

We are in the midst of financial turmoil, again. I can appreciate the "turmoil" better now as I am relatively wealthier than I was 10 years back. Many has started to pop me with this question: "Is this the right time to buy shares? When can we buy ?"
There is no best answer to this. Even if Warren Buffet tells you to be greedy when everyone else is fearful, you got to have "bullets"(money) to be greedy! However, I would like to share my thoughts on averaging.
Many have told me that they have started to "average down" following the turmoil. These includes averaging down their trust funds, stock holdings or even bonds. For financial idiots, averaging down means buying the same equity/trust/shares at a lower price compared to the price you have bought previously to lower down your average purchase price for all units held, vice versa for averaging up. Why I prefer to average up instead of down?

1. The Percentage Trick
If you have bought ABC share at RM 1 each last month and now the price has fallen to RM 0.50, you loss 50 % of your share's value in your investment. Think about this, if you were to break even again, you need the share to gain a 100% increase. In order to make a same amount of RM0.50 gain , you need the share price to perform 200 % gain for the share to move from RM0.50 to RM1.50. Which do you think is harder ? To move down from RM 1 to RM 0.50 or to move up from RM 0.50 to RM 1? Mind you that we are talking about the same value of 50 cents here with a different gearing ratio.

2. Bull and Bear sequence
Strong bull does not visit share market often, so does the bear. If you notice, our market is stagnant most of the time, with less than 15% variance over 3-6 months. A stable market is always the best time to make good decisions. Stable market normally occurs after a great bear market. You can take your own sweet time to average up.

3. Catching a Falling Knife
Have you experienced that before ? Have you ever averaged down, causing your portfolio to stay in red for a very long time? This statement is very true, you will bleed. I have a friend who recently told me about the hidden potential of IOI group, as their stock price have fallen from RM 8.60 to RM 4. I have advised him to put that purchase on hold. IOI shares has since fallen from RM4 to RM2 now in just 2-3 weeks. During a turmoil, you will finally find out all the risk that a company is exposed to.

4. 真金不怕红炉火- Genuine Gold is able to endure the fire
During the good times, everyone is concerned about share price gain rather than dividend yield. Who cares how much dividend you make as long as the company is making big money and share price is up exponentially. Most of the time, investors are not told about the investment risk a company is exposed to and the debts-translated-benefits during the good times. All these will gradually surface during a crisis as companies are desperate to keep their books looking good. Unfortunate incidents on risk exposure(such as Enron, IOICORP) will less likely to happen when the market is picking up.

So, when the market is bottoming out? Or, would it be better to say, when the market is picking up again? My personal gauge, when the market is moving up 15 % again over a period of 3-6 months, it would be a good time for averaging up. It's always better to be safe than sorry, don't you think so?

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Million Colours of Malaysia. Why talents leave?

I feel somehow lucky, to be a Malaysian, after watching the video below.
Malaysia, a great place, and will be greater if we manage to retain all the talents.
The song is performed by a talented Malaysian as well, Juwita Suwito, listen to her songs here.
Are you a Malaysian residing outside Malaysia now? I hope to share about talent in my next entry. Let's hope for a better Malaysia tomorrow!

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Being calculative for the wrong reasons

City folks are calculative, in certain sense. They calculate the tolls that they are able to skip by choosing different routes to reach their destination. They calculate how much points they could earn on Bonus Link when making a decision to purchase a product. They figure out which computer shop to visit from lowyat.net before purchasing digital peripherals. They try different ways and spent a lot of time convincing their banks to waive the credit card annual fees.

We are always calculative on little things that are well publicised. Everyone in the city knows about toll-skipping routes, you will looked dumb for not knowing that. Even ladies shop often in Low Yat nowadays. We often overlooked the non-obvious stuff when we choose to be calculative. I will bring out a few simple examples.

Most of the people working city owns more than one bank account, even there is only one which is active. This is partly because most of us opt to have a career change every 2 to 3 years. Most of the companies insist their employees to have accounts with the bank they dealt with. Many therefore ended up with 3 or 4 ATM cards. I know of a friend who owns 8 ATM cards. Are you aware of how much an ATM card cost per annum? It is RM 8 per annum, regardless of your usage(for most banks). 8 cards would mean RM 64 per annum. You will seldom notice it because it is automatically deducted from your bank account. You will not feel the pinch as it is a minimal sum compared to your savings in bank. Do you really need all your ATM cards ? For your information, my ATM card is also my credit card. I pay RM 0 for ATM facilities although my daily withdrawal limit is capped to RM 3000. Of course, my credit card annual fees are normally automatically waived by the banks without even needing me to call them. (I only stick to one credit card to focus my spending on one card)

Many know how much they paid for their road tax every year but not their car insurance. We always get runners to renew our insurance and road tax without knowing much about the details. Do you know that your car value depreciates year by year ? This results in lower insurance premium. However, most drivers are not aware of this. They paid whatever standard amount which is advised by their insurance agents. The premium for RM80K and RM60K can be very different. Are you aware of that?

The list of examples will never end if I decide to cite every one of them. Advice for the day, it's good to be calculative at times, but not for the wrong reasons.

Sunday, August 3, 2008

Getting Rich Quick in the city

If you are approaching 30 and still not belonging to the group of rich, powerful and famous, do not be disappointed, many are with you.

This is NOT an entry telling you about how to get rich quickly. It is an entry speaking out what most of the early twenties young working adults had in their mind when they started their working life in the city: to get rich quick.

There is no shortcut for success. I have joined at least 2 MLM companies before and I know how hard people work towards their success. I also know some of their "scam" tricks on how to attract more members. Fortunately, the products I bought from direct sales membership are usable and effective for me and my family (though I did not continue to use them now anymore, the products are really good, it's just too expensive).

It is not the case for many. Many loss their hard-earned savings by investing into scams and memberships. They will not tell you their story as it is not something to be proud of. Some of them chose to create "fact exposure" sites which are widely publicised as they felt that it's their obligation to warn others about some flawed investment scheme.

Some of the young entrepreneurs found themselves to to be in trouble by trying to slaughter the golden goose. So, how should you decide what's the best for you in order to live comfortably in the city?

1. Be Patient
I have been through the early 20s stage. I must admit, 20s is a very competitive stage in life, especially for young graduates who works in the city. You don't have much experience and yet try to prove yourself to be more successful than your peers. You want to own an Altis when your peers are driving Vios. Many who are impatient to make their first pot of gold eventually loss their "investments" to some "professional scams". I grew up in the era of dotcom bubble during my early 20s, where many young, successful entrepreneurs are featured by the media. I have too, been given the limelight by main stream media featuring my startups during the early 20s . However, I have learned to be patient and analytical throughout the years in order to move to the next level. My advice for the early 20s, analyse the "opportunities" offered to you carefully before investing your time and money. Yes, time and energy is all you have when you are young and use them smartly. They will translate to success and money if you make your decisions wisely. Learn from other's experiences and try to create opportunities for yourself rather than buying into one. I will blog more about creating opportunities for yourself in my future entries.

2. Be Focused
Many will try everything to get rich and famous. Most of the people in their 20s will have similar philosophy of life: "never try, never know, so try everything and you might hit the jackpot". Ask any of your friends working in the city, 8 out of 10 of them will tell you that they have joined an MLM, unit trust or insurance company as agents before. However, probably only 1 out of 10 of those who joined remains as active member now. It's hard to achieve what you want in life if you are not focused. Trying out everything is not the solution to get something out of your life. I have told myself that I would like to improve the quality of people's life through technology. I am still sticking to that goal.

3. Be Balanced
My ex-neighbour never gave up persuading me to join his MLM business. I have nothing against MLM companies, as long as they sell their products honestly. One of the factors I chose not to join is because of the imbalance workload in MLM working environment. He drives a C Class now, bought just after 6 months joining the MLM company. Frankly speaking, his C Class does not come in easy. I knew how hard he worked. Ever since he joined the MLM network, I hardly seen him at home. He came back at 3 or 4 am almost every night, even during the weekends. Though he claimed that his working hours are flexible, it's not flexible at all to me. Weekends has to be dedicated for work and you usually spent your time in talkshow events at night. You hardly have time for your family. Always strike a balance in whatever you do, maintain a healthy lifestyle, you will never regret doing that.

Though it is hard to make yourself rich quickly in the city, there are still ways to guarantee yourself a comfortable lifestyle in the city. I hope to share more about this in my future entries.

Why having hard time to look for food in the city? Now, everyone can cook!

Most young working adults living in the city do not cook. Eating out has become a norm for many working class city folks. Sometimes, you just run out of idea where to take your dinner. With rising inflation, many hawkers and restaurants are either hiking their food prices or cutting down their food preparation cost. Neither is good for us as consumers. Well, we will need to eat everyday. So, what can we do ?

Learning how to cook can help to ease some inflation burden while helping you to de-stress yourself. I find cooking helpful in releasing your tension especially when you do your cooking during the weekends.

Learning how to cook is easy. Learning how to cook your favourite Malaysian food is especially important especially when you are in some foreign land. I have picked up some cookings tips and figure out some recipes from the following websites.

http://www.deliciousasianfood.com/
http://myhomerecipe.com/
http://imbinitchy.blogspot.com
http://steamykitchen.com/
http://www.rasamalaysia.com

Want to taste my cooking ? I am planning to run a pot luck at my place, anyone joining ?

Saturday, August 2, 2008

Snippets: When God's plan is greater than Man's

"人算不如天算" (ren suan bu ru tian suan, it means man's calculation can never be more accurate than God's).

I used to work for a UK public listed company for 4 years. I was allocated GBP9000 worth of share option at the price of GBP1.79 which is due for exercise on August 2008. This translates to 5028 shares.

When I decided to leave my ex-company, the share price was at the height of GBP3.42, it was just 8 months before I could exercise my options. I will not get anything from share options if I leave the company anytime before the exercise date. My potential loss would be (5028 X GBP (3.42-1.79)) = GBP 8195.76 or RM57,534 (GBP/RM was 7.03 at that time). Enough to buy a brand new Waja.

It was a tough decision to make. Though I knew it was only a potential figure, it was something hard for me to part with. Something which I deserved having if I fulfilled my employment duty for another 8 months. I left in the end.

The news broke out on 31st July 2008 and the latest share price was GBP1.71, 8 pence lesser than the option price. What can I say?

Friday, August 1, 2008

Buying vs Renting Property

This is a boring topic for most to go through, as you can find similar article in financial magazines or newspapers. However, I would like to share my experience from a more personal viewpoint rather than financial viewpoint. A viewpoint from someone who migrated from other states to Klang Valley for a living.

Almost 50% of the young working adults in Klang Valley do not grow up here. Many found a job in the city and made city their home after having a stable career. Many who came from foreign state rushed into buying properties during the first few years of their working life. A lot of them do not want to "service the loan" for their landlords, while some are worried about the quick-rising house price. It's really a tough decision to make, especially when your income is merely in the range of RM 3-4K. So , what are the factors you should consider before buying a property?

1. Do you really like city life?
Many of my friends went back to their hometown within 5 years after working in the city. Some of them find it hard to cope with working stress and the high living cost, while some find city a cold and boring place. I had a friend who constantly having gastro problems when she started working in the city. Doctors are unable to diagnose what's her problem exactly but she has recovered after going back to her hometown. Do you really like city life ? Are you ready to bite through the bullet and go through the city struggles? If not, renting a place is still the best option during the first 3 years of your working life.

2. Which city do your want to be exactly?
Many of my friends started to work in Penang and moved to Kuala Lumpur eventually, vice versa. I have also friends who worked in Kuala Lumpur and decided to move to Singapore after getting fed up with the rising crime rate. If you are not sure about the city that you plan to settle down with, be safe, rent a place.

3. Are you the only child?
Well, many will wonder why this is important. Think about this, what if your parents wants to stay with you? You need a bigger house ? Or you might need to move back to your hometown?

4. Do you have a stable relationship/ planning to get married ?
Sometimes your wife/husband might have different plans on whether to settle down in the current city. Be sure about it.

5. Where do you prefer to work at?
My neighbour is an interior designer. He just sold his house two weeks back. He works in Damansara Heights and interior design companies normally have their premises located at the city center. It's hectic for him to travel from house to work and he had realise that he had made a wrong decision buying a place far from his work place.

6. Are you paying more than 3 % of the total property value per annum for your rental?
If the property you have rented cost you RM 500 per month(RM 6,000 per annum), the average value of the property should be 6,000/3% = RM 200,000. If you are renting a property worth more than 200K at Rm 500 per month, you can slowly look for a property you like before rushing buying into one.

7. Can you afford a property which you don't mind staying in with a housing repayment as much as 25 % of your income?
If you are making RM 4000 a month, you can afford to repay RM1000 for your housing loan. Are you able to afford that and would you stay in the property after it is ready ? Many bought their properties without doing proper survey. They bought simply because it is cheap and affordable. Some chose to continue renting a place even after their properties are completed because they don't really like the place they bought. Why do you want to buy in the first place if you know you won't be staying in that property?

8. Are you looking for an investment or a place call home ?
Many do not have an idea what exactly they wanted, a property for investment or for own stay.
It is hard to satisfy both criteria unless you have gone through hundreds of property in town. Rule of thumb, if you are looking for a property for investment purpose, ensure that it generates positive cash flow.(Malaysia's property has very low capital appreciation, ranging from 2-4 %, which is lesser or same as FD) If you are looking for one for own stay, make sure you like the place, capital appreciation is secondary. Never force yourself to purchase a property just because of the capital appreciation potential. You might regret someday.

So, are you ready to buy one now?

Addendum: Inflation, BLR, OPR, FD Rates

Bank Negara has just published their latest report on Malaysian economy. As per my previous entry on inflation and real FD return rates, I would give you a clearer picture depicted from the BNM report. Picture is worth more than thousand words,:).


Real FD return rates is decreasing since Sept 07'.



MYR is depreciating against major currencies since early of the year.

So , what are going to do with your Fixed Deposit in Ringgit Malaysia? :).

*all images above are cannibalised from BNM's latest report

Snippets: How to get the job you want by having a good resume

Jobs are aplenty in the city. This is why people come to cities to seek for better opportunities. However, getting the right job for yourself is never easy. It is a two-way matching process, and a trade between employers and employees. You might be good at your expertise and domain, but not good at expressing the skills and achievements you possess on a piece of paper. Your skill sets can be much more valuable, by having a well-polished CV to "enlighten" your potential employer on the talent they needed.

If you are not good at expressing yourself through your CV, it can be solved, easily. Visit Boon's blog, or drop him an email at boon [at] leapwalking [dot] com to ask for help.

Thursday, July 31, 2008

Looking for true friends in city

It's hard to get true friends in the city, especially when you have started your working life. You can't appreciate the meaning of true friends anywhere better than the city.

I had a friend who stays close to my hostel room during the university days. We were quite close to each other back then as I always dropped by his room for casual chats. We nearly lost touch after graduated as both of us are busy traveling and working. (there is no Facebook yet back then) However, I tried contacting him a year after we graduated. The conversation sounds like this:

Me: Hey, brother, how are you doing?

My friend: I am fine. How about you?

Me: I am fine too. Just thought of catching up with you, have time for a cup of tea?

My friend: Sure, but what you want to SELL to me?

Me: Huh? SELL to you? I am not selling anything to you, just catch up with you and have a gathering.

My friend: Sure or not? You are the first person who told me this after graduated.

Me: .............................................

It's not hard to come across "long-lost" friends who calls you for a "tea-session". I have friends who calls me up to introduce insurance plan, MLM, "investment-link", credit cards, mortgage plan, Iraq dinars, fitness membership (by the way,i heard YogaZone got into trouble lately), get-rich-quick scheme, discount vouchers, magazine subscriptions etc., you name it. Some called me for help to ease their cash flow problems or borrow my car for emergencies. I gave in most of the time. Everyone needs a rice bowl to survive in this city. If you can help your friends not at your expense, why not ? This explains why I had applied more than 10 credit cards.(which most of them I had canceled to date)

City is a cold place. Leaving your hometown for opportunities in the city can be depressing especially if you do not have true friends in your city life. Your parents and siblings are not there to give you a listening ear or a helping hand. Coping with city and working stress alone is definitely not easy.

"无事不登三宝殿" (wu2 shi4 bu4 deng1 san1 bao3 dian4, it means people don't look for you without a reason). I can truly appreciate this Chinese proverb now which existed since 5000 years back. 90-95 % of your friends are mostly "business-related" . It's a norm as everyone in city fights for survival and might not have much time for you on non-beneficial activities. I am fortunate to have a few true friends which consists of my ex-classmates, ex-house mates, ex-uni mates, ex-colleagues and CG (cell group) members. I appreciate them a lot for their support, listening ears and helping hands in needy times. So , how can you get true friends in the city?

1. True friends shares similar values

You might might share different stories with true friends but you always find it interesting to listen to their stories. You might not have the same dream and vision but you are always keen to know how they think.

2. True friends tells you the truth

Conversation with friends tend to be superficial especially in city. There is typical two types of answers when they are asked about their current life. "Business is extremely good and life is great like never before" or "I am not as good as you la" . True friends shares their success and struggles with you.

3. True friends thinks of you when they need someone to listen to

I give "platinum status" to all my true friends. I never cease listening to their problems and trouble, because I felt privileged to be the first group of people they think of when they need someone to talk to.

4. True friends thinks of you when they have something nice to share

Be it a nice dumpling or home cooked dessert, they always call you up to share nice things with you.

I always encourage my friends to join my CG(cell group). One of the reason I liked my cell group a lot is because most of us comes from foreign states. We share the same feeling of not having our family members around, we share the same stress of coping with city life.

True friends can be found in groups of people with same hobby or ideology as well. You can find a true friend even in the driving range. You might also meet a true friend during a back-packing tour. True friends can even be found from blogsphere as you might share the same ideology,passion and values with other bloggers.

Last but not least, business partners can also be true friends if both parties are not selfish in nature. Anyway, you do not want to have a selfish business partner, right?

To all my true friends, i dedicate this post to you,:).



Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Inflation, OPR, BLR, Currency & You

Inflation, OPR, BLR, Currency. These words seems to be hitting the financial news headlines lately. Besides inflation, what the other terms has to do with you?

Staying in city is not easy, the cost of financing a property is always double the ones in smaller towns. The cost of financing is directly affected by BLR(Based Lending Rates). So, if you are staying in the city and planning to purchase a property, inflation and BLR will be one of the major concerns for you.

Inflation creeps into our daily life, causing us to spent more for less goods. This is what we can feel directly when inflation hits us. How about our savings, trust funds and stocks? Our liquid assets will be less valuable. Imagine your FD rates is 3 % while the inflation rate is 7 %. Whatever you have today is worth lesser tomorrow.

One of the ways to fight inflation is to increase the OPR (Overnight Policy Rates or Interbank Lending Rates). Increasing OPR will slow down inflation as business activity will slow down due to tightening of banking facilities. Besides that, the OPR might be higher than inflation rate as a result, giving positive return rate for your liquid assets.

Bank Negara has recently decided not to raise the OPR. Therefore, BLR will not be raised as well. Most of the property owners hence felt relief about the decision. The stock market has also return to bullish state as cost of borrowing for business remains stable following this announcement. However, the retaining of rates might also signify that our economy is lethargic. We cannot to afford a setback in economy growth now by raising the rates. On the negative side, inflation might also be spiraling up in months to come as a result of the decision.

Now that Bank Negara maintained the OPR rates, we are also facing yet another crisis, the currency crisis. If you check on the BNM FOREX rates, you will notice that MYR has been depreciating since the announcement of Bank Negara on 25th July.

Currency devaluation is a scary phenomena. Imagine your hard-earned money accumulated since the past 10 years is depreciating by 5-10 % every year. Your EPF money will be eaten up by inflation and currency devaluation. We are experiencing the toughest time ever, in wealth management and economy management.

It's far too complicated to analyse the best solution to manage our current economy. It's a tough decision to make in deciding whether to raise the rates in order to maintain our economy's health. I have been admiring Zeti for her calmness and intelligence for a long time. I hope she had made a wise decision this time.

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

The Wish List

I love to be young. I am easily satisfied during my younger days. I am delighted when I got my first mountain bike, overjoyed when I bought my first car using my hard-earned money during university days. It's very hard to describe my joy in words. However, I am supposed to celebrate joyfully upon settling my home loan last year but I wasn't really overjoyed. The only feeling I had was, relieved.

One of the hardest thing to to overcome in city is temptation, and one of the hardest thing to achieve is satisfaction. I have to admit human are greedy in nature but temptation makes it even harder for people to survive happily in the city. I can still recall vividly that the best ice-cream in my hometown were Walls and Nestle. (FYI, my hometown is a small town with a population of about 100,000). There is no Hagen Dazz, Baskins, NZ Natural, you name it. Peer pressure makes it hard for you not to taste them, especially if you are a young working middle class. What makes it worse is that once you have tasted them, you will never be able to appreciate Walls and Nestle again. Life is hard, our decisions are always contradicting, huh?

To satisfy all your needs, you will have to earn more. Some chose 0 % payment scheme to satisfy their needs while some work day and night just to afford higher taste. I knew this will never end. I knew I couldn't afford everything I wanted. I came out with a solution for myself, a wish list.

My wish list is supposed to make myself happy in every milestone of my life while helping me to control my spending habits. Some milestone were based on accumulated wealth while some were based on personal achievements. The wish list is meant to be a reward scheme to make my family and myself happy especially when I have achieved certain milestone. Wish list is also a way to drive myself harder to achieve something in life in order to enjoy the carrots.

I will probably share my wish list as snippets in future entries. If you are finding yourself in a dilemma to own something you wanted a lot, create a wish list. You will be happier, someday.

Monday, July 28, 2008

Snippet: Leapwalking.com

Career development is very crucial for every one to survive in the city. I have not been focusing much on career development thoughts. My friend, Boon, has a great blog that focuses on career development with analytical views on various career related issues. Visit his website at http://www.leapwalking.com You will surely benefit a lot from his advice.

Having a mentor at different stages of your life

I am learning to appreciate things I have learned in the past as I get older. I am an engineer by training. However, I started appreciating finance at the age of 21. I moved on to history, geography and now economics. When I was young, I couldn't understand why people did their PhD in history. It was boring to me. At different stages of life, you learn to appreciate the usefulness of different knowledge domains and starts to apply them in your daily life.

Having a mentor at early stage of your working life helps you to appreciate these faster and easier. I had started to have mentors after entering university. My first mentor Dr. Ewe gave me advice on entrepreneurship when I started my first techo-venture at age of 18 . I learned a lot from how to lure venture capitalist, striking an elevator pitch to writing professional business plan in the early days of my university life. I thanked Dr. Ewe for his enthusiasm and guidance in bringing up the future generations of technoprenuer in Malaysia.

During the final years of my university life, I met Mr. Yap, an ED of a public listed company in Malaysia. He was kind enough to mentor me on starting up new companies and running a profitable business. I had a great lesson on startup essentials and know-how on maintaining a successful business cycle. I thank him for his patience with a young punk like me.

I met my ex-CFO, Mr. Chew, who was also a Finance Controller in a listed company years later. Cool and quiet person, he is a great mentor in guiding me on financial management and stock market investment. Having graduated from engineering studies, financial management is a total stranger to me. I started learning about the basics of financial management from my cool mentor when we got closer in a trip to Ipoh. I continue to learn about ways to control operational cost as well as to increase company's profits from a financial standpoint. Terms such as technical analysis and fundamental analysis were added to my dictionary throughout the mentoring process. I was trained to be a shrewed investor. I wouldn't say I am a financial expert now but my financial knowledge are much superior than my university peers thanks to Mr. Chew. I opened my first CDS account after knowing him and my stocks portfolio has been multiplied by 800 % since then.

Ms. Lee and late Elder Cheng were my spiritual mentors. Their guidance and teachings has kept me walking in a righteous path throughout my career and life. Being successful in your life without ethics leads to emptiness. I thank them for planting ethics and God's word in my life.

Good mentors are important in shaping your thinking and character. They fill your innocent mind with useful tips and advice which can be applied for lifetime to make you a better person. I could never imagined myself to be what I am today when I moved from a small town to the big city of Kuala Lumpur. My mentors gave me substantial survival skills to survive in a city. I certainly hope I could mentor the younger generation someday.

Thursday, July 24, 2008

Working Overseas & Migration: Are you in?

If you are below 30s, something must have crossed your mind before. Migration. It's the trend for the young working adults now and the trend is spreading virally.

I used to hear stories about my relatives and friend's parents working in foreign countries during the 80s. Many of them migrated and some came back during the late 90s. The favourites are Australia, New Zealand, Japan, US, UK, Singapore, Canada and Saudi Arabia. The rich ones will uproot their family and migrate to developed countries while the poorer ones simply work in countries that can provide them with more income. In the 80s, economic instability and currency conversion rate was the driving factor for the migration wave. Today, the economic factor is still present but there are more reasons behind this new wave.

12 of my friends have left to other countries this year. Also, I am seconded lately with my family to work in MENA region. Officially, I am an expatriate now, :). 4 of my other friends are leaving by August. There are more to go. Different reasons are cited by my friends for leaving the country. Why the migration and job secondment wave is hitting Generation X in Malaysia?

1. Air Asia Factor
Low cost air carrier or better known as Air Asia in Malaysia makes it possible for middle-class or even lower-middle class to travel by air. I used to envy my friends during my school days when they tell me about their traveling experiences. I used to imagine how the air cabin looks like but my maiden flight was way below my expectation. My parents used to tell me that if I want to fly to other countries, I will need to earn a lot or join a good company. Air Asia changes everything. The air-traveling landscape has changed much since the millennium. Many Generation X had the chance to travel at least to nearby countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Myanmar and Hong Kong to experience a different culture and lifestyle. I am blessed to be able to set foot on 16 different countries. After observing the culture and lifestyle of different people around the world, many just have the impulsive thought of spending a year or two in some foreign land. Yes, we want to see the world, and feel it. Low-cost air carrier has opened our eyes to the world and we want more now. We want to experience a different place rather than visiting. Air Asia has also given many a good reason to fly back to their homeland more frequently, taking away the concerns of losing touch with friends and family.

2. Diminishing of national pride
Nationalism started since the 19th century, marking the end of imperialism. Enterprises and businesses used to be indirect tools for new imperialism but is slowly fading away now. In the past, people worked hard for their country to "conquer" the world with their products and businesses. Malaysian Proton bought Italian Augusta which is sold to the Germans now. Americans are selling Budweiser to Belgian brewers and GE Plastics to Saudi Arabians. American owned Jaguar is sold to Indian TATA now. It's hard to distinguish who owns what now but the new owner will always try to impose control by swapping the senior managements. Today, you are not sure who you work for anymore. You might be working for a Malaysian company, which is later sold to the Italians and later to Middle Easterners. Today, you feel less proud of your country and other peoples country. Vietnam, China and India are growing economies but you will not feel proud to be their citizen. Of course, with what's happening lately, you feel less proud of being a Malaysian now. Many used to chase the American Dream, but the Green Card's demand is getting lesser now. Today, people care lesser about working and contributing in and for their homeland. Money, security and personal experiences comes before nation building.

3. Wide-spread of User-Friendly Communication Technology
Call any Malaysian number using www.flekx.com and it cost you nothing. Communications cost is zeroing now. I still remember having pen-pals from Finland when I was 13. Ask any 13-year-old teenager today and they will tell you to socialise in Facebook. We are changing our communication tool from letter-writing to telegraph to phones to internet voice calls and now to video calls. The classic verse to end an overseas phone conversation used to be, "we have talked too long and it's getting expensive, guess i need to end the call now". Today, our conversation end like this,"my ear is hot liao la, bye bye". The advancement of communication technology has brought everyone closer. People are less concerned about communication problems after leaving their homeland. Even Indonesian maids can afford to call back everyday now.

4. Rising Education Levels
Our parents used to be proud of having HSC or Diploma certification. Anyone who graduated from university will leave their name on the ancestors association's wall of fame. This is not the case for today's education. Throw a pebble and it might hit an undergrad on the street. The rising of education levels has 2 major effects in driving the migration rate. First, it's harder to get a job now. Second, your knowledge and skill sets can be deployed anywhere in the world. Salary scales has been quite stagnant for the past 10 years. It's getting harder to look for a decent-paying job now as compared to 10 years ago. Graduates are forced to work with lower wages as they do not have much options. Experienced expertise and knowledge workers will look for decent paying jobs in overseas to make their experiences worthwhile.

5. Historical Mirror Factor on socio-politics
Politics. Be it Anwar or Najib, TDM or Pak Lah, all we want is a foresighted leader, a prosperity-and-security-conscious leader. We studied Sejarah (history) from Form 1 to Form 5. What has the history taught us? History told us that Philippines and Indonesia are stronger and more powerful than Malaysia. Riau and Sulu Empire used to conquer the "Kepulauan Melayu". Their currency is much stronger in the 80s and 90s compared to what is today. Reformation and chaotic politics has brought down the nation. Political chaos has inflicted burdensome socio-economic problems. We have a very close mirror to predict what will be happening soon to Malaysia if the political problems doesn't end. As what Sun Tzu says, "Fleeing" is the best option.

6. Globalisation of Developing Economy
I have just finish reading the book, "The World is Flat", by Thomas L. Friedman. Globalisation is affecting your daily life whether you like it or not. Many Malaysian companies are venturing to less developed countries to fight for survival. One of my friend is seconded to Cambodia as Financial Controller for a listed company in Malaysia. He is still below 30, this is a great opportunity for him to gain his experience as an FC. Globalisation has given opportunities for many Malaysian companies to venture out. As a result, many young working adults are given the opportunity to prove themselves at young age, as the more experienced group in their 40s has more family obligations and considerations. Given a chance to be a country manager at age of 28, would you go to a less-developed country to venture your career?

There are far more reasons than the ones mentioned above for people to leave their homeland. Be it a migration or secondment, survival is what you need in a new environment. I will talk more about surviving in a new city with a different culture,language and lifestyle in future entries. If you have some time spare, do vote for my migration question on the sidebar, "Given a chance to be in senior management at 28, would you go to a less-developed country to venture your career?"

Good luck to all my friends who decided to venture out.



Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Enhancing Value of Your Neighbourhood

I stay in Puchong. This year marks the 10th anniversary of my stay as a Puchongnite.

When I made my decision to own my house in Puchong 6 years back, it's was really tough to tell people that you actually bought a house in Puchong. Back then, it makes you look stupid investing in a place full of mining pool and shady shoplots-some are even renovated into dodgy pubs. IOI mall has so many vacant lots and their anchor tenant, The Store, could not even survive. Many asked me why I bought a place in such areas (a.k.a low-class-area). Many recommended Subang USJ to me at that time. My answer was simple, without help from anyone, how can you afford to own a landed property in Klang Valley after working for only 2 years?

I have never stayed in a strata property before in my life-time (my entire hometown has only 2 blocks of residential apartments) and I came from a foreign state where landed freehold properties are halved the price of Klang Valley's. It's really tough to make a decision to own a relatively expensive piece of property in the early days of your working life. However, I knew I wanted a freehold, mining-free, gated landed property in Klang Valley and the properties that fits into the category are getting scarce day by day.

Setting price factor aside, one of the reason I bought a place in Puchong instead of Subang is because Puchong has plenty of land. You might be surprise with this reason as it contradicts with the normal rule of economics where scarcity increases the value of goods. I knew about this, I know Puchong's property value might not appreciate fast. However, when I look at Subang from Google Earth, the entire area was very well planned with little space for roads and highways. Most of the land are built with landed properties and you hardly see any vacant land plots on the map. The Subang's population will be saturated and the commercial properties are not doing well here. Subang is definitely a no no for me to stay as I hate traffic jams. On the other hand, a future city with vacant lands gives the future city mayor a chance to plan for a better city. I always tell my friends that Puchong will be a bigger city compared to Subang in years to come. I chose Puchong.

Some of my major concerns when buying a house during my early 20s:
  • Price & Budget
  • Crime Rate & Security
  • Neighbourhood
  • Landed, Tin-Mining-Free, Freehold
I knew there are many more concerns for everyone else but the 4 above are my major ones. My Puchong property had everything right except for the neighbourhood factor. For sure, you do not want to stay close to foreign labours, drug addicts or prostitutes. Also, you want your next generation to study with other kids who are brought up in a good family. The question now would be, how can you be sure about your neighbourhood when you are buying a newly developed property.(the neighbourhood has not been established yet).

Of course price factor does come into the picture, but we have to take price factor aside in this discussion. (or I will just stay in Kenny Hills) My best friend bought the same area two years after me and we started to promote Puchong to friends. Most of our university mates are working as professionals now and I ended up having most of my university friends staying in Puchong now. I am very surprised as my housing area are now occupied by doctors, lawyers, engineers, architects, professors, lecturers etc. Even better, 10 % of them came from my hometown and many of them came from my home state. I am satisfied with my neighbourhood now as everyone are very co-operative and we have a very good security management.

A peaceful and friendly neighbourhood greatly enhances the pleasure of your stay in a particular housing area. A good neighbourhood also increases the value of your housing area indirectly. It is therefore important to do your part to create a pleasurable neighbourhood. Some of the things my residential committee and neighbours does:
  • Pay security management timely
  • Keep the roads clean
  • Organise seasonal events
  • Alert every residents on any burglary cases within the neighbourhood
  • Alerts the security when suspicious foreign labour found wandering around (they climbed over fences sometimes for shortcuts, as what they claim)
  • Do not simply park their car outside your house (it's very annoying, and part of the reason being, a young neighbourhood generally has less cars)
On a side note, Subang's property prices are falling lately. Apparently, Subang's crime rate is getting worse according to the latest report. And who says Puchong's property is cheap now? IOI latest two-and-half storey terrace house is launched at the price of RM880K for an intermediate unit.

I love Puchong.

The New City Trend- Unit Trust: Should I Invest?

It's very hard not to bump into a unit trust agent while walking around the city. I still remember this agent who never fails to promote her unit trust when I bumped into her during lunchtime around KL Sentral.

Some of the promotion tag line are very creative, eg. "Young man, don't only wet in pubs la, save some money, buy unit trust and save for "lou po bun"(savings to get married)." Hey, do I look like someone who wet a lot? I have not been to pubs since 23 and I have already got married,:P.

Anyway, back to the unit trust topic. Most of my friends who are working in the city bought unit trust, a lot of them are selling too. Some also opted to leverage on their EPF savings to purchase unit trust, as they are worried about the way EPF manages our money. However, many asked me the same question these days, "Should I sell my trust fund?"

I sold all of mine back in 2007, anticipating a recession which didn't happen. Ever since then, I never bought in a single fund. I was one of the very first trust fund advocates and investor among my peers. I am still able to recall that we are able to count the number of trust funds available in the market back in 1996. Now, you just lost count.

My stand is still neutral now for trust fund. Reason being that a lot of people living in the city are lacked of financial knowledge. This is the reason for buying as well as not buying trust funds. If you do not know how to manage your money, probably investing in a trust fund might help you to fight against the rising inflation. However, many of the fund investors are investing based on the city "herd-mentality". Their favourite tag line is, "If you do not know how to manage your wealth, let the professionals do it".

People are working very hard to make extra money in the city but didn't have extra time to learn how to manage it. This is why when I asked my friends on funds they have invested, they couldn't even tell me the ratio of their funds distributions (ratio of cash, equities, bonds, properties etc). Many are unable to tell me which sector of equities their funds are focusing on and what is their funds' investment policy. When asked about the difference between Money Market Fund and Equity Fund, a typical answer would be "huh? got difference one meh?" I hope you are not asking yourself those questions now. Even if you are, it's never too late to learn,:).

My current view on trust funds: a long-term investment tool. If you do not know how to manage your wealth, keep everything in cash and gold now. Trust funds are not good for short-mid term investment in the current financial climate. One of the reason you lost count on the trust fund counters is because the number of trust fund investors is growing at an exponential rate due to overheated economy. Economy is extremely hot in countries such as China, India and Vietnam. The recent economic shocks has sent various equities market value back to more acceptable level, bringing down trust fund's NAV (Net Asset Value) significantly. The worse has yet to come.

What if you are still on a trust fund investment plan? Keep whatever that you have invested, unless those are junk trust funds. (I will write on analysing trust fund soon if possible) For future investment, IMHO, I would choose to divest into foreign currency or gold instead of trust funds.
Does your trust fund manager care about losing your money ? No, they don't. They still get their sales commission and professional fees annually. Life goes on. This is why I don't trust them.

My personal advice before investing in trust funds, always take note of these few things:
  • Fund Distribution (Ratio of Cash, Equities, Properties, Bonds)
  • Risk (high growth high risk, stable growth low risk)
  • Investment Policy
  • Moral & Ethics (in case you don't invest in gaming or tobacco companies)
  • Past dividend and bonus splits records
  • Compounded Annual Growth Return (CAGR)
  • Performance of other funds within the same financial group
Talk to more people to find out their views on the economy direction and decide on funds which suits you the best. Happy investing!

* the above advice are purely my personal opinion and I will not be responsible for any losses incurred based on advice given.

Why city folks are late to get married? (II)

Steps to save for your wedding:

  1. Get a wedding planner: You have so much to do to prepare for a once-a-life-time event. Get your friends(preferably just married,without kids) to plan for your wedding. I bet you can save a lot!
  2. Wedding Cards: Get from your hotel/restaurant if you are not planning to have a special wedding invitation card. Otherwise, get a friend irom digital printing industry to help you out.
  3. Wedding dinner: try to negotiate not to settle for full payment before the wedding.
  4. RSVP: Many Malaysians do not understand what RSVP means. Instead of explaining this to them, just call up everyone you invited for your dinner two weeks before to confirm on their attendance.
  5. Wedding buffet (if you have any): remember any "chap fan" auntie or uncle who sells very nice chap fan. Get them to cook for you and what you need is just to buy/rent some very nice caterer utensils. You can save a few thousands for this. My buffet for 150 people with 8 dishes only cost RM800. Get your wedding planner to do this,:).
  6. Honeymoon: Ideally, go for a one week honeymoon in a nearby island (eg Langkawi, Bali, Phuket). There's is always AirAsia,:). You will enjoy and relax a lot. If you wish to have an overseas posh trip, plan it during MATTA fair.
  7. Flowers: Get a florist from outskirt( Klang, Kajang) who is equally good to assist you in decoration. You can easily save a few hundred bucks.
  8. Relatives: If you need to accommodate relatives from far, get a bungalow for a day or two. You will usually pay less compared to hotels.

Monday, July 21, 2008

Why city folks are late to get married? (I)

One of my good friend recently told me that she needs to "strategise" her steps to get her boyfriend to marry her. When asked, the reason given was that her boyfriend was financially unstable. I felt sorry for her. I got married at age of 26 though it wasn't easy. Let's face it, marriage is one of the biggest event in our life and a once-a-lifetime event which you will have to spend to give your wife a memorable wedding. This is some experience that I would like to share, getting the best with least money for your wedding. And guys, don't wait for your girlfriend to push you to marry her!

Spending for wedding can be very impulsive if not well planned. For instance, your wedding album might go up from 3K to 6K if you do not have an idea about how your album should look like. My sister's wedding album cost her Rm14K while mine cost RM2.8K. Imagine Rm14K sitting at a corner in your house collecting dust after your wedding. Well, memories are priceless, some might say.

Let me give you an idea about the main expenditure for weddings:
  • Wedding Album & Wedding Package
  • Wedding Ring
  • Wedding Dowry
  • Wedding Dinner
  • Event Video & Photo Shooting
  • Honeymoon
Here are some tips for couples living in cities (especially KL) who are deciding on your wedding package. Many couples decides their wedding packages in bridal roadshows. Bridal roadshows normally offer much better discount compared to walk-in purchase. However, many are not aware that the bridal house they have chosen might not have suitable gown for the bride. A lot ended up renting another gown which might cost them another RM1000 or more for just 2 days. What is RM1000 to make your wife happy on her wedding day, :). But if you can save this RM1000, it will make both of you even happier. So how ? Shopping around different bridal house to check on their gowns before bridal show season starts. This does not only help you to save, but also provide both the lovers a memorable pre-wedding experience. It would be very easy for you to make decisions and ask for discounts in bridal roadshows as you already know what you will be getting.

For wedding rings, needless to say, check them out early and purchase during sales season. :)

Getting tired. To be continued tomorrow.

Sunday, July 20, 2008

Snippets: Malaysia Property Outlook

I have been checking out on different opinions on Malaysia's Property Outlook lately. Some of the interesting views and arguments I found.

http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/2008/07/frank-assessment-of-property.html

http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/14940

http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2008/7/14/business/21807128&sec=business

http://www.estate123.com/reviews_articles/article_review_detail.aspx?a_id=59


http://www.bnm.gov.my/files/publication/msb/2008/5/pdf/5.15.pdf

Building Zero Cost Knowledge-Based Business (III)

Money, you cannot run business without it. Though I am talking about zero cost, but money is still involved in any business. Without money, your business will not profit even if it is a zero cost business. This is why, it is extremely important to have business clients while having an investor will help you to quickly expand your business.

It is really hard to run a business while having a day job. You have limited time to approach your customers directly or even to surface for your business. It is therefore important to join a network to promote your services through your friends and strangers. Promote your solutions and skills through Facebook chats or your blog. A casual chat with your friends might bring you surprises. You will never know your friend of friend are actually looking for the solution you are building. This helps your solution to be promoted rapidly by just word of mouth.

There are plenty of "middleman" or "solution brokers" around. Many people has huge contact database and are always looking for "lubang"(opportunities). However, be very careful and selective when you encounter one. A good "solutions broker" will help you to manage your entire project and provide you with peace of mind to concentrate on solution development. Never underpay your broker. A good solution broker helps you to build your track record which is extremely important for a business to attract more customers and investors. These brokers will also be a good marketing personnel for your business if you are able to pay him/her handsomely.
Investors are able to help your business to take a leap for your business expansion. If you have a good solution which is attractive, investors are always interested to invest in your business. How you can meet these investors ? Some tips for you on investors:

1. Join Entrepreneur Clubs. Be it MCA ICT Resource Center, TeAM or PUMM, these organisations provide you with necessary information and networks to access to investors.

2. Look for Listed Companies. There are over 1000 listed companies in Bursa Malaysia alone.Listed companies are owned by many shareholders. Their money belongs to public and most of these companies are always interested in acquiring potential companies to boost their revenue and improve business portfolio. If you happen to know any friends working with or owning(as a director) a listed company, you can always approach them to help you to sell your company.

3. Private angels. There are many people who are rich and do not know what to do with their money. Socialise around and you might get surprises. To expand your social network, join Toast Masters to get to know more professionals. You can also visit trade shows and free conferences to get to know more people from different industry.

These are some basic guidelines to start a zero-cost business and by no means a comprehensive one. I hope to cover more from time to time in future. Feel free to drop your comments if you have any. Moving to more interesting topic soon... :) . Why city folks are always reluctant or late to get married ?

Building Zero Cost Knowledge-Based Business (II)

Have been busy lately, it took me such a long time to blog again. Anyway, I hope to finish this series as soon as possible.
The Power of Collaboration. Many knows that collaboration and partnership is important for businesses but do not exactly know how to benefit all parties involved in a collaboration. There are many ways to work on a collaboration but I am only going to mention one of the most crucial collaboration or start-ups--resale.
When you have a knowledge-based business, the value of the solution is intangible and subjects to the importance of your clients' encountered problem. Packaging your solution with some existing goods gives your customer an impression of "value-buy". For example, you can package your solution with Windows Server software license, server hardware or even a data hosting subscription. Collaboration with distributors in such cases, will help you to solve a lot of software and hardware related problem as those problems can be directly directed to your vendor/partner. Furthermore, software/hardware sales commissions are quite lucrative and will be able to boost your company's profit. Packaged solution also gives more revenue to your business which provides a good track record for financial institutions if you need any facility.

So , how do you start your first collaboration? Here's some tips for you:
1. Google for software or hardware from overseas which complements your product/solution. Approach the contact person and strike a partnership. Why overseas? Overseas products normally hopes to get some sales rep/agents to expand their business to other regions of the world. If you are genuine, they are more than willing to work with you. For example, Flekx.com, a Malaysian FREE Calls provider collaborates with PORTSIP to distribute their free calling software. This allows Flekx to concentrate on free calls solution while leaving the soft phone features development to PORTSIP.
2. Brainstorm on how you can benefit your potential partner with your current solution before approaching them. This will help you to convince your potential partners.
3. Provide updates to your partner. Updating your partner with the latest development gives more confidence to your partner and encourages them to promote your solutions more aggressively.
4. Demographics. If your partner comes from a different region or industry, share and exchange your market demographics with them to help both parties to expand faster.
5. Distributorship. Seek for distributorship of your partner's product if you think their product is robust and strong. This will provide you with a lucrative side income for a start. However, never forget that your solution is still your core business and always stick to your business goal.

The final chapter, I will talk about Client & Investor, source of your income and capital. Watch out!

Friday, July 4, 2008

Building Zero Cost Knowledge-Based Business (I)

"白手兴家" (bai shou shing jia), a term to address successful business man who started with just penny-like capital. Its seems hard to start a business without much capital these days. My friends has been asking me, how do you start selling and stop dreaming without capital?
As what the Chinese proverbs says 创业难,守业更难, starting business is never easy, maintaining a business is even harder. However, if you start with limited risk running business within your domain of expert and interest, it would be much easier than thought. Some of the tips are as below.

1. Service, Solutions, Product
Many of us just don't like working for people. I have friends making Rm20K and above a month with average 3 months of bonus every year who quit their jobs. You can be making RM5K, 10K, 20K, and yet you will still quit for the same reason: I want to be FREE! However, many people quit for the wrong reasons, they just want to be FREE without preparing themselves for financial freedom. Many end up returning to employment with even more grouses and depression over their employers and jobs. Generally, I classify businesses into service, solutions and product.
Without much capital, most of the people started out by self-employing as a service provider a.k.a free-lancer. Freelancer will not keep you going far as you might be "hitting-flies" during low-business-cycle. Therefore, freelancing might be something good to start with but one must quickly turn him/herself into a solutions provider or product seller. A lot might ask, what is the difference between service and solutions? Service generally involves exchange of labor or knowledge for goods/money. Solutions on the other hand, involves problem-solving. Solutions can be documented and reapplied to different parties easily. Thus, solutions are valuable and might contain some sort of intellectual properties.
Let me quote you an example. I have a friend who is a web scripting programmer, took up a freelancing job years back to create a server monitoring web-based application. It's a simple job with little wages. However, he managed to turn the scripts into an SMS-based server monitoring solution, which is currently sold to 32 countries worldwide at http://www.hyperspin.com. He managed to quit his day job to run this business full time after slowly building up the business for more than a year.
As for products, you can turn your services into products and engage resellers to sell for you as well. Just burn your software product into a CD/ USB drive and package them into a box. Alternatively, you can use a serial-key controller to control your software distribution through the web and get paid using Pay-Pal.
Yes, service is just a short term solution for business-running and you can't go far with that. You need to try to turn everything you do into a sell-able solution or product.

In the second section, I will talk more about the using Power of Collaboration to build your zero cost business. Watch out for more,:).

To be continued.................

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

How to thrive during tough times?

Depressing news is hitting business headlines more often nowadays. Nikko Electronics which is listed on Bursa Main board is closing down its factory, retrenching thousands of Penangnites. US is becoming Bear Country now with Dow Jones heading south for more than 20 % from the peak. During the 97 Asian Financial Crisis, I am still an undergrad without much wealth accumulated. Although I started some small business since 1996, my business was not too badly affected as my business is dealing mainly with cost savings. Volatile times can be melanchonic, but can be trivial too. How you can thrive during tough time?

Property Shopping Spree
On and off, I like to check on the latest property market price from Thestar Classifieds or iproperty.com.my, not really to purchase any property when I found one that is a steal but to checked out how many "steals" are available in the market. Lately, I found quite a few and it's getting more and more. A 20 x 70 double storey link house in USJ 3D normally cost about RM300-310K , but someone is letting go at RM270K. If you are planning to buy a property, hold on, you will be surprised with what you can get with just RM250K.

Blue Chips Shopping Spree
If you are feeling sad because you missed the 2006 Super Bull run for KLSE, this is a good time to shop for good blue chip counters. Down from peak of RM13.20, Maybank is now RM7 per share. The price can be much lower during a recession. General rule of thumb, when the blue chip counter cost only 30 % of it's peak price, it is normally a steal. (disclaimer, this is a personal view and I am not liable for any damages or losses of anyone taking the above advice)

Garage Sale
Huge amounts of expats vacated areas like Damansara Heights and Sri Hartamas during the 97 crisis. If you have spare cash, yes, you can purchase the properties in hose areas. However, for most of us who can't fork out 500K and above at any one time, forget about it, as banks will be very stringent on housing loans as well during bad times. What might be appealing to the general public would be the garage sales held by those expats. At times, you can get very good quality stuff at dirt cheap price in a garage sale. Check out classifieds for garage sales!

Business acquisition/Starting your own business
Are you nuts? Some people might say that. Why start or acquire a business during a recession? Plenty of reasons, among those, because your employer will freeze your pay anyway during a recession and you need extra income(even during 2001, many companies still freezes pay), because many businesses will collapse and you will have less competitors, because you might be able to acquire a business probably halved the price it use to be, because many people will choose to migrate and sell their business, because it cost lesser to operate during a recession, because .... . No matter what reason it is, starting a part time business during a recession gives you some flexibility to learn from failures. Freelancer are especially sought after as well during bad times to cut fixed operation cost.

Economic cycle is getting shorter. We will be experiencing longer stagnant economic conditions sandwiched by short boom times. So , grab your opportunity during this coming cycle and get the best out of it!

Tuesday, July 1, 2008

Why SGD?

I have been advocating lately about keeping some cash in SGD.(I know this sounds a bit like a Malaysian "traitor" and will be condemn badly by Tun Mahathir if he came across my blog). Many might just ask me, why SGD ?
Singapore has been suffering from high inflation lately with steep fall in export revenue especially last two months. My wife visited Singapore 2 days back hoping to get some nice shirt for me and guess what, the same shirt I bought last year cost more now even during the Great Singapore Sale! Inflation, this is the reality that we have to face it, even in Singapore.
Singapore has limited land and manufacturing activities will not be able to sustain Singaporeans' cutting edge lifestyle anymore. Singaporean government, dubbed The Singapore Inc. , is gradually changing Singapore into a high tech, commercial and financial economy driven country. This reminds me about SimCity game where old factories are gradually faced out and replaced by high tech research labs and commercial offices as your population grows and as the city gets better.
This is what exactly Singapore is doing. No doubt, introducing stronger currency will hurt manufacturing driven economy especially South East Asian countries. Therefore, by getting rid of low cost manufacturing, strengthening the local currency will bring more good than bad. As the country is less dependent on manufacturing sector, stronger currency will not deplete the trade surplus as country's income is not dependent on this particular sector anymore. On the other hand, strengthening currency will cut down inflation(for a small country that relies heavily on imports), attract talents to work with high salaries and also attract depositors to keep their cash in SGD with Sg banks. Yes, Singapore is morphing itself into the so-called "Eastern Monaco".(Monaco is a small country where a lot of Europeans keeps their cash with Monaco banks and makes the country super rich)
Let's do some simple analysis. Malaysian's MYR is depegged from Singapore's SGD since 1992. What are the changes in terms of % for MYR/SGD currency exchange rate from 1992-2008? The maths is simple:
1992 - SGD 1 = MYR 1
2008 - SGD 1 = MYR 2.4

(2.4-1)/1 = 1.4/1 = 1.4 = 140%

16 years with 140 % of difference is not bad at all. 8.75% per year on average, which is better than the all-time-high foreign FD interest rate NZD is providing. Sounds sexy , huh ?

Many of my friends did the math and told me, "Cannot be la, SGD cannot be keep rising. You mean it will rise until it hits the same level as USD, are you kidding? There is always a limit"
Let's look at 2007-2008 rates. (with reference from BNM website) During June 2007, the rates was 2.20 and as of 30 June 2008, the rates was 2.41, there is a 9.51% rise in terms of exchange rates. If SGD rise another 8 % by June 2009 , the exchange rate will be something like 2.6, which sound possible. Besides that, we are really not sure how Malaysia politics will mess up our entire economy, turning our currency into "banana papers".
Again, the next question, why SGD? Why not Euro, CHF or GBP? Haha, the answer is simple, Singapore is so damn near and Malaysian can even open an account with Malaysian MyKAD. In any case of emergency, you can withdraw your cash from Singapore on a day trip. So , why make your life hard?
So, if you have some cash to spare, this is a good and safe option to go for, don't you think so ?

Friday, June 6, 2008

The nightmare that came true: High Inflation Era

I was reading NST Online when the bad news came. Yes, the nightmare came true, fuel price hits RM2.70 per litre. Literally, if you are driving a Wira which consumes about 1litre/10KM, you will be paying about RM 2.70 for a Char Kway Teow which costs you RM4.50 5KM away (to and fro makes it 10KM) from your house. It's tough to imagine but it is happening in front of our eyes!
Everybody will be hit. Higher income group will be the least affected group while middle class people will suffer the most. We are witnessing a downgrade of middle class income group to lower-middle class income group. Our dear Tun M has given his thoughts from a leader's perspective There are also strikes by DAP asking for a decrease on fuel prices. What will happen next and what we can do as middle class?
Though I am not an economist, but I reckon that severe after effects will follow through, some of the after affects are as below
1. Rise of transportation cost
I bet you that even POS Malaysia will be increasing their rates for postage and delivery services. McD Delivery might charge you with a 50 % hike for their delivery services as well.
2. Stock market crash
The business will be hit hardly due to high cost of inflation and slowing down of local consumerism activities. Stock market will not crash immediately but throughout the next few quarters, businesses will feel the pinch.
3. Rising rates of BLR
Inflation will definitely happen. One of the best way to curb inflation is to increase borrowing costs. Beware if you are taking a housing loan with fluctuating BLR rates. To contain inflation, BLR can be raised to 8-8.5 %. If you are taking a 300K loan, it will mean that you will need to pay RM500 more per month if the BLR is fixed at 8.5 % instead of 6.75%
4. Decrease in Real Estates Value
I agree with real estate experts that properties situated far away from cities will suffer from depreciation. However, I certainly do not agree that higher end properties that is near to the city will experience a boom in prices. A lot of houses and apartments around high-end areas such as Damansara and Sri Hartamas are rented out as quarters for restaurant and cafe workers. With high fuel prices, fine-dining and entertainment industries will definitely experience a drop in business volume. With a lot of vacancies for house rental in high end areas, do you think the property value will go up?
5. Soaring prices of hawker food
Hawker food business might go to an end. Would you pay RM 7 for a plate of Char Kway Teow? This is the reality, hawker food will cost more than today's prices of RM4.50 on average. When a plate of Wan Tan Mee cost you RM7, you will be thinking, I would rather cook myself! Even a pack of Maggie Mee with an egg cost you more than RM1 now, what do you expect,:).
6. Gen Y learning curve
We are living in an era where Gen Y pampered kids finally started their life journey seeking jobs. Gen Y will have a hard time looking for jobs as they normally ask for high pay and unable to cope with stress. It's a time for them to learn what is hardship or the country will fail with low productivity.
7.Widening of social gap
Middle class income group used to be able to afford imported Thai rice, which cost about RM25 instead of RM50 now for 10KG. Yes, they still can afford it now but everyone will think twice before buying. A lot of middle class people will switch to value-for-money, which suggest a downgrade in their lifestyle and standard of living. It turns out to be, you can only purchase imported fragrant rice without second thoughts when you are taking a 5 figure salary. And sorry to Gen Y again, you can no longer afford a Vios on your own for your first job.
8.Reduce of Office demand
Many will opt for SOHO and business owners will look for cheaper locations which is closer to their homes. Don't you think so ?
9. Credit Card Woes
Credit card companies will be forced to increase their minimum wage requirements but many will still get it. Gen Y debts will be growing faster than ever. Savings will be something that is easy to talk about but hard to be put into practice, especially when you are living in city.
10.Depreciation of MYR
Malaysian Ringgit might fall to lower levels due to pulling out of foreign funds as our country has become less attractive for business. Buy some Singapore dollar or open an account in Singapore,:).

Disastrous. What can we do then ? How to survive in city with such circumstances? I have provided some tips in my previous post. But i would like to give more tips here, with regard to the hike in fuel prices.

Saving Tips
1. Work from home
Suggest to your boss that to work from home on alternate Fridays.
2. Use Social Network to Carpool
Somebody please create some apps to carpool using Facebook. Social network gives you the trust to car pool with unknown strangers.
3. Plan your shopping list
Plan your groceries to avoid having to go out again just to get some soy sauce
4. Optimized your driving speed
Drive at off peak hours and average speed of 90-100km/h if possible
5. Food delivery
If you often drive out for lunch or dinner, try considering food delivery once or twice a week.
6. Register for Online Payment
Online payment and banking can save your time and fuel.
7. Check catalogues before shopping
Buying gadgets in Lowyat? Check them in Lowyat.net. Avoid wandering around searching shop to shop. Your parking fees and time might not worth the effort. For hypermarkets, most of them are distributing brochures house to house now, check them before you shop.
8. Call less, Call for free using Flekx.com
Call mobile phones and pstn using www.flekx.com softphone. You can save a great deal!

Financial Tips
1. Fixed Rate Loan
If you planning to get a housing loan, go for fixed rate loan.
2. Cash
Keep some cash , probably worth 3-6 month of your pay, preferably some in foreign currencies.
3. Stock market/Mutual Fund
Reduce holdings in share market or mutual funds and wait for a downfall to enter again,:)
4. Properties
Try to get out of properties. This is a bad time to get a second property if you have already got one. Properties market will collapse if inflation is uncontrollable.
5. Foreign Currencies
Carry trade some foreign currencies especially SGD.

Look for other posting below for more tips!

Take care guys.

Saturday, May 24, 2008

Should we change our lifestyle?

"Change your lifestyle!" This is what the government urges Malaysians to practice during this everything-is-going-up era. Personally, I don't agree with this statement. What does it mean by changing your lifestyle? Let me give you some example:

1. Instead of eating fragrant rice, change to brittle rice.
2. Instead of driving your car, ride a bike.(with no bicycle/motorcycle lanes on trunk roads)
3. Less movies, more RTMs & TV3s(or pirate DVDs)
4. Less Starbucks and mamak, make your own coffee
5. Buy less books and papers, view online (how about poor people who don't even have broadband?)
6. No Baskins/ HagenDazs, consume low quality ice cream with more chemical and trans-fat
7. Less fresh food , more canned food
8. Less overseas vacation, more Cuti-cuti Malaysia (becoming a frog in the well)
9. Use RON 95 instead of RON 97 petrol, take in more sulfur dioxide.
10. And many more downgrades.......

Come on. Everyone can downgrade, but we do not want to be forced to downgrade. Philippines has better standard of living compared to Malaysia 30 years back. What happened now? Yes, they downgraded their standard of living. They flee their countries too, working in Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Middle East etc. Do we want that to happen to us Malaysians?

We have been enjoying 20 years of prosperity from rich natural resources which is going to be drained out very soon. What's more left for us ? Nope, we don't have world-class Malaysian owned technology, product or knowledge. This leaves us with nothing. All that we can do is to CHANGE and DOWNGRADE our lifestyle! What else we can do? I will share on my thoughts about how we can maintain our lifestyle while going through this tough time in next entry. :) Leave your comments!

Saturday, April 26, 2008

Preparing for recession

How can you prepare for recession?

1. Keep your job. If you don't like your job, tell yourself, you just need to bite through the recession.

2. Increase income stream. You can blog, proof read, edit content, pick up more freelance jobs to decrease your debts.

3. Budget. We tend to have a mentality of "i-am-okie-as-long-as there-is-leftover-for-this-month-income'. We don't really budget our cashflow. Create one now and cut off unnecessary expenses.

4. Call up your bank to reduce interest rates if you have a property. If you bought a property 3 years back, your loan interest can be as high as 7% per annum. As banks are getting competitive now, some banks are even offering a 4.8 % per annum interest rate for the entire loan tenure. If you are still tied to a 5-year locking period loan, write to your bank to reduce your interest, a penny saved is a penny earned!

5. If your housing loan is free from locking period, REFINANCE it! HSBC offers you very competitive package now!

6. Don't put all your eggs in one basket. Never always count on a single source. Diversified your investment, sources of income or even you business deals.

7. Start saving in high interest yield banks! Standard Chartered Bank offers you very competitive Flexi Deposit rates through e$aver Account !

8. Balance transfer your credit card loan to a lower interest rate bank if you have any card loan!

9. Recycle. Always purchase refill packs and use both sides of your paper. ;)

10. Indulge in small ways. Admit it, we will go crazy if saving like mad without indulging ourselves once a while. Indulge yourself in small ways. For me a Perrier with lemon after a days work makes my day!

11.Always look for vouchers. Credit cards and membership card provides hefty discounts for dining and retail. Always browse the websites for latest promotion. Why pay more for the same thing?

12.Buy and Sell in Lelong.com or Ebay. Your jacket is too small? Thinking of throwing it ? Convert it to cash! If you are thinking of purchasing a new gadget, tr to search it at auction sites. For a month or two old gadget,you can even get a 30-40% discount for the same thing.

13.Diversified your investment. Hedge your wealth. I will talk more about hedging in future. Many people do not know what to do before a recession even they anticipated it. Hedge your funds! Try investing in gold, you can open a GOLD account in Maybank, Public Bank or Ambank. Since gold price was tagging at USD600/oz few months back, I have been asking my friends to invest in gold, now it is near USD1000/oz!

14. Beware of REITS. If you invest in REITS. Pull out when recession is coming. You never know what can happen to properties during a recession. It much better to keep liquid cash.

Hedging is an interesting game. I will talk more about hedging in the next few posts. Believe me, if you play it right, you can even thrive during a recession!

The Recession Litmus Test

It has been a long long time I am out of blogging space. Life is busy, and life goes on. Since 2007, I have been anticipating a recession to happen by 2008. Haha, sometimes i just feel myself looking like the little chicken in Chicken D Little, telling everyone the sky is going to fall. Yes, it has not happened yet, and yet it seems like everyone is waiting anxiously for the "dooms day" to come. Aren't you?
I have thought about this a long time. Why just waiting? At times of uncertainties, what can we do to prepare ourselves or even thrive during a recession? Everyone has some idea but no one has really been putting plans into actions. So , I have came out with some general rule of thumb to prepare myself for the forthcoming recession.

The Recession Preview: The Recession Litmus Test
I am not an economist, but I really like to talk and study about economy. It's just so fun to explore more about supply and demand. These days, even without recession, times can be hard. Rising cost of food, energy and transportation is turning a 10 ringgit note to look more like a 5 ringgit note. However, we will always try to comfort ourselves, "the GDP last years was 6 %, how bad can it be?" . I have thought about it and some of the indications of recession is listed as below:

  • Rising Costs of Living: creates inflation, people will have less disposable income to spend on luxuries, properties and hobbies. Eventually ,creating an economic downfall.
  • Dependency on limited commodities income: Malaysia, as what Tony Pua mentioned in The Star, is depending mainly on CPO and crude oil income to sustain our economy. These 2 commodities is accounting for almost 50 % of our exports income. Another major income comes from electronics industry, which is also at the brisk
  • Properties Overhang: The government has recently allowed Malaysians to withdraw their EPF monthly to finance their housing loans. This act is merely delaying the financial problem to 20 years after. (ppl will suffer during retirement as they have little savings in EPF). Although RM 9.6 billion financial floodgates has been open up, it merely causes goods to inflate. From my personal perspective, those who really need a property, will buy it even without this incentive. While those who has already bought, they will just have more to spend, which can be good and bad. (it will cause inflation although it might boost economy activities). This clearly will not be able to solve the property overhanging problems in Klang Valley. Once the bubble burst, everyone who owns a house will feel it.
  • The CPO effect: CPO has a great effect on our countries economy. During days of 97-98, per tonne of CPO can only sell for RM400 versus the RM4000 we have now. I would say , the current CPO price is very shaky as we have experience CPO trading halted for twice due to panic selling this year. If the CPO price permanently drops below RM2000, w will have a problem.
  • Stock Market effect: A lot of people like to refer KLCI as an economic health indicator but I prefer to analyse trading volume as indicator of economic health. Trading volume reflects the confidence level of consumers in stock market and it is clear that since Jan 2008, the trading volume has plunged drastically.
  • Retailer inidcators: Let's wait for quarterly result from Jusco, Seng Heng, The Store, HSL, Amway and I will be able to tell you more!

I will share more about preparing yourself in the next post. Watch out for more, ;)